A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
